Some World Cup Quick Hits

So with only a matter of hours left until the beginning of the World Cup, I’ve put my neck on the line and I’ve predicted the results all the way to the final on July 11th.  You can see my predictions here.

The main points in Gavin Grace’s World Cup are as follows – France miss out in the group stage, Mexico reach the Quarter Finals before losing to England, while Brazil are champions with a win over Argentina in the final.

A couple of points about it:

• Firstly... ya it’s not the most exciting of predictions.  England/Argentina/Spain/Brazil in the semi-finals is far from a shock.  However years of filling out similar brackets for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament have taught me that going chalk is the way to go!

• France’s early exit is only partly based on my dislike of the French football team.  They are a team in decline, and are most people’s selections for a flop in the next two weeks.  Reports of revolt in the camp don’t bode well, and I’m not inspired by anything I’ve seen from them in recent times, especially in last week’s loss to China.  You’ll also notice that I’ve predicted that South Africa will emerge from Group A.  They’re not the strongest team, but the Bafana Bafana are unbeaten in their last 11 matches, and no home team has ever failed to reach the second round of the World Cup.  I think they’ll maintain that streak, albeit finishing behind Mexico, but it could be one of the tightest groups of them all.

• Some of the groups are pretty easy to pick the top two out of:  Group C (England/USA), Group F (Italy/Paraguay) and Group H (Spain/Chile).  Others weren’t so easy however, even if the winners are most obvious.  Portugal should finish ahead of Ivory Coast in Group H, while I’ve picked Greece to beat Nigeria to second in Group B – I’m not too confident about that, to be frank.  I like some of what I saw of Nigeria in the African Nations Cup, but the Greek’s defence is why I went for them.  South Korea could cause an upset there too.  Germany’s group is also a corker.  I’ve gone for the Germans to top it ahead of Australia (in part because of the fact that I think the Aussies will go far-ish).  Serbia’s loss to New Zealand was enough for me to write them off, while Michael Essien’s absence means I’m not backing Ghana to do much.

• In the knockout stages, there’s some games that I feel could go either way:  I went for Brazil over Holland, but the Netherlands can attack, of that there’s no doubt.  Germany v USA is a potential upset – the Americans are good, and the Germans are lacking experience.  Meanwhile Mexico just might, maybe, perhaps be capable of knocking England out.  

• How easy is Italy’s run to the Quarter-Finals?  Paraguay/New Zealand/Slovakia should pose little threat, and provided Holland win their group then Cameroon/Japan/Denmark should provide fairly easy fodder.  

• I worry about the impact that the long seasons for players in England and Spain could have, and in part that’s why I have both nations falling short of the final.  Mind you, when I’m doing that then I readily admit that I should also perhaps degrade Argentina’s chances as well, given their dependence on Messi and Aguerro.

• I’m looking forward to seeing some teams playing, even some that I say won’t exit the group stage.  I’ve had a grá for Honduras for several years, and their games against Spain and Chile in particular will be interesting.  Nigera can play, and if Drogba can return to fitness then they could trouble anyone in Group H.  And speaking of Group H, I honestly fancy North Korea to get a draw with Brazil.

• For top scorer, since i have them going to the final, I’m going to go with Luis Fabiano but my outside bet is Lucas Barrios of Paraguay, given their fairly easy group.  

They’re no Olympics, but I do love the World Cup.  Heroes and villains will be made in the next month, and no matter predicitions from both experts and people like me, things will happen over the next month that none of us can foresee.  We will enjoy it, we will love it, and I hope that we also get some phenomenal moments that I’ve been revelling in while watching classic matches in recent weeks.
 
Let the games begin.

Ten Days To Go....

June has arrived.  More importantly, June 2010 has arrived.  It is the month in which most of the World Cup will unfold before us, and come July 1st only 8 of the 32 teams who have qualified for South Africa will be in with a shout.

Therefore, I reckon it’s high time that we start to get excited for all things football here on the Almost Daily Sports Blog, and that’s the plan for next few days.  Between now and Friday week I’m going to post a preview of one of the tournament’s pools, A-H as FIFA dictates, followed by a prediction of how the knockout stages will unfold on June 10th, the night before the opening game.  More blogging will then be done throughout the tournament, where I hope to bring you some unusual/interesting pictures and videos and more than just simple match analysis.

Speaking of interesting videos, and to get you somewhat into the mood, ESPN have created some short video pieces which you can see here.  It’s some of the finest work the station has ever done in my opinion, and contains interviews with several players who have scored goals in World Cup Finals, including Ireland Assistant Manager, Marco Tardelli.  It’s wonderfully shot, and well worth checking out.  Enjoy it, and come back here soon for our World Cup coverage.

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PS Thanks for your votes in the quandry I posted recently.  I’m taking your advice on board and some changes will likely be implemented, albeit not until after the World Cup at the earliest. 

Kidney calls for Sexton appeal

Bit of a shock, but Jonathan Sexton gets the nod at Out-half over Ronan O'Gara for Ireland's clash with South Africa at Croke Park on Saturday. In a surprise move by coach Declan Kidney, Sexton has seized the number 10 jersey from O'Gara as reward for his outstanding display in Saturday's 41-6 victory over Fiji.

To be fair, Sexton has been the form fly half in Ireland this season with O'Gara failing to find any real decent run of form since returning from the Lions Tour. It is a bold selection that rewards the 24-year-old's sparkling form since being thrust onto centre stage during the latter rounds of Leinster's march to their first Heineken Cup crown last season.

Elsewhere Keith Earls comes in on the Wing for the injured Luke Fitzgerald. Other than that its the same team that lined out in the drawn match with Austrailia. With Denis Leamy back on the bench after what I thought looked like a seasoned ending injury against Fiji.

The South Africans are the World Cup & Tri Nations champions and are formidable opposition, however they have been hit by a bit of an injury crisis. Fullback Zane Kirchner (knee), centre Adi Jacobs (ankle), scrum-half Fourie du Preez (hand), lock Bakkies Botha (back), hooker Bismarck du Plessis (ribs) and backrow forward Schalk Burger (ribs) are all on the treatment table. This has been a trying tour for the Springboks as they have already been beaten by France and Guinness Premiership opposition in Leicester & London South Africa... oh i mean Saracens. Having said that I still believe it will be a fairly brutal encounter on Saturday & a fine test of this Irish side.

I'll put my head on the line and predict Ireland to win by 3 points.

C'Mon You Boys In Green

The countdown is on to Ireland v Italy.

Four and a half hours now!

I'm not sure how big a game it actually is - Ireland can wil and still not overtake Italy at the top of Group 8.  Nonetheless, it would be brilliant to beat the World Champions in our own back yard and give us four days of dreaming that Cyprus might, just MIGHT, do us a favour against the Italians in Italy.

To get you in the mood, here's a reminder of THAT day in Giants Stadium on the opening weekend of the 1994 World Cup.



It really was fifteen years ago... Christ.  I'm old.

Gender Bender

Gavin has already spoken about this earlier in the week, and some interesting debate was generated but its a rainy Sunday morning, and there's nothing I enjoy more then flicking through the Sunday Sports papers. The back pages of the sports sections are full of opinion on the South African 18 year old Caster Semenya. Semenya won gold in the 800 m at the 2009 World Championships in Athletics with a time of 1:55.45 in the final, a personal best and the fastest time in the world that year. In August 2009, amid growing speculation, the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) conducted a gender verification test in the weeks before the 800m event at the World Championships. Results have not yet been published.

The IAAF have not handled the situation with the sensitivity they should have. It put the poor women into a situation in which the world's eyes were on her and her life itself was put on display and questioned.

The fact of the matter is that these allegations are not new. They have followed Semenya for a few years. Therefore, there was ample time to verify sex (again, a difficult process) and clear the way for her to compete. There is no doubt however, that the question was always going to be raised in Berlin, that people would ask and scrutinize, and so good management and coaching would have seen this resolved BEFORE the Championships even began. Because it was not, we are sadly seeing that Semenya will be the loser in what might well become an ugly story. There is surely nothing more offensive than the question of a woman's sex - even a doping accusation does not come close.

Opinion has been divided amongst athletes and media pundits. "For me, she's not a woman, she's a man," said Italian Elisa Piccione, who finished sixith in the final. "Jeez, she's fair big, she's no bulge down below though, must be a woman," said Pat Conliffe from Castleblayney. This guy had some interesting opinions on the matter.

Lions 3rd Test Team

After a prolonged absence due to lack of an internet connection I'm back to give my opinion on all things rugby, specifically the Lions team for the 3rd Test this weekend.

With this match being something of a dead rubber and the injuries mounting up McGeechan has gone with an interesting selection.

There are four changes in the pack. Sheridan and Vickery come in for the injured Jenkins and Jones respectively while Williams and Worsley replace Wallace and Croft.

Sheridan acquitted himself well as a replacement in the second Test and he should dominate John Smit in the scrums. Fears that Beast Mtwarira will best Vickery in the scrums again should be allayed by the improved scrummaging power afforded by Shaw in the second row.

Martyn Williams will offer more in link play and at the breakdown than Wallace which will be needed after the injury to O'Driscoll who is like a third flanker in midfield. In Worsley the Lions at last have selected a blindside flanker whose defence is strong enough for the Boks unlike Tom Croft who despite constant championing by the English media has only proved what Martin Johnson has said before. He's a hybrid forward stuck between two stools. Too lightweight to be a world class second row and not aggressive enough in the tackle to be a Test blindside.

In the backs Shane Williams and Ugo Monye have come onto the wings with Tommy Bowe being partnered by Riki Flutey in the centre. Luke Fitzgearld is paying the price for his defensive error in the lead up to the first try, however he rarely put a foot wrong elsewhere and this call seems harsh on the young Leinster player considering Williams is out of form and Monye missed two try scoring oppurtunities in the first test.

It's asking a lot of Bowe to play at second centre as he has played there rarely for the Ospreys and never at test level. Perhaps the Lions management are hoping if he gets his hands on the ball more often he can create chances for others as he did earlier in the tour. Kearney continues at full back as do the half back partnership of Jones and Philips. These three players will have to be at their best if the Lions hope to avoid a whitewash.

The Lions management have gone with a 5-2 split on the bench. It's an odd decision that could see Harry Ellis playing on the wing if injuries like last week repeat themselves. The Irish pair of Keith Earls and Gordon D'arcy can feel hard done by to be left out the squad altogether considering the paucity of centres on tour.

There is hope for the Lions in that South Africa have named a very inexperienced side with ten changes overall. Yet some of the changes may not weaken the Boks at all. Wynand Olivier and Jaque Fourie are a very strong centre pairing, perhaps stronger than last weeks centre pairing. Morne Steyn replaces Ruan Pienaar which will strengthen the Boks kicking game and in swapping Spies for Ryan Kankowski the Lions are faced with another freakish athlete at No. 8.
After the heroics of the last two Tests the last thing the 2009 Lions deserve is a whitewash however it seems on the cards. South Africa to win.

Lions Side Named For Kings Clash

The British and Irish Lions have named their side to face the Southern Kings tomorrow afternoon. The last warm-up game before the first test with the Springboks, the side named this morning gives clues as to who will and won't be involved in the test series.

Lions team: K Earls (Munster & Ireland); S Williams (Ospreys & Wales), R Flutey (Wasps & England), G D'Arcy (Leinster & Ireland), L Fitzgerald (Leinster & Ireland), J Hook (Ospreys & Wales), M Blair (Edinburgh & Scotland); A Sheridan (Sale Sharks & England), R Ford (Edinburgh & Scotland), E Murray (Northampton & Scotland), S Shaw (Wasps & England), D O'Callaghan (Munster & Ireland) (capt), N Hines (Perpignan & Scotland), J Worsley (Wasps & England), A Powell (Cardiff Blues & Wales).

Replacements: M Rees (Scarlets & Wales), A Jones (Ospreys & Wales), T Croft (Leicester Tigers & England), D Wallace (Munster & Ireland), H Ellis (Leicester Tigers & England


Two points to note, Shane Williams has a virus and there is a doubt over his participation in the game. The Beeb are reporting that he hasn't travelled for the match and that Tommy Bowe of Ulster and Ireland has been called up as a standby.

Secondly, according to rugby guru Rob who's been posting here in the last few weeks, some of those named in the side could yet figure in the test team. He's asked me to tell you to look out for Simon Shaw and Luke Fitzgerald in particular as players who could yet make the 22 for Saturday, particularly if they're substituted from tomorrow's game at about the fifty minute mark.

Lions Team Announced

The British & Irish Lions side to play Western Province

15. Rob Kearney (Leinster/Ireland)14. Tommy Bowe (Ospreys/Ireland)13. Keith Earls (Munster/Ireland)12. Riki Flutey (London Wasps/England)11. Ugo Monye (Harlequins/England)10. Stephen Jones (Scarlets/Wales)9. Harry Ellis (Leicester Tigers/England)

8. Andy Powell (Cardiff Blues/Wales)7. Martyn Williams (Cardiff Blues/Wales)6. Joe Worsley (London Wasps/England)5. Nathan Hines (Perpignan/Scotland)4. Donncha O'Callaghan (Munster/Ireland)3. Phil Vickery (London Wasps/England) captain2. Matthew Rees (Scarlets/Wales)1. Andrew Sheridan (Sale Sharks/England)

Replacements:16. Ross Ford (Edinburgh/Scotland)17. Euan Murray (Northampton/Scotland)18. Simon Shaw (London Wasps/England)19. Tom Croft (Leicester Tigers/England)20. Mike Blair (Edinburgh/Scotland)21. James Hook (Ospreys/Wales)22. Gordon D'Arcy (Leinster/Ireland)

Some interesting selections from Ian McGeechan. I'm suer Rob will have more on this later on.

Lions Update

Here's our first post from Rob, giving us about the latest updates from the Lions tour to South Africa.

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Players blogs providing an insight into team and camaraderie - while not openly criticising Sir Clive Woodward, it is evident he got it completely wrong on the lions tour to NZ. From the get go players felt like two teams rather then one squad, from everything from training to travelling as pointed out in Martyn Williams blog.

A credit to munsterfans.com contributors for updating one thread with Tommy Bowe, Rob Kearney and Martyn Williams' blogs.

Interesting news this week - Neil Jenkins taken on as "kicking coach". Had O'Gara, Jones or Hook missed more then the measly one a piece this might seem more appropriate. To the author it seems a bit like a job for the boys approach. I may just be too cynical, the Irish Province Munster have over the last two seasons always brought a former player in a non coaching role to big European Heineken Cups away matches. Declan Kidney introduced the policy to help remind the younger players of the tradition they play for. Kidney has won 2 Heineken cups with Munster, and guided Ireland to it's first grand slam of the professional era, so I think I'll give him the benefit of the doubt on his methods! Jenkins kicking was instrumental to the Lions series win in SA in 1997 - an untried or tested full back at the time, his deadly accuracy with the boot was the difference in the test games. Ironically it was a debutant Percy Montgomery (then a centre) whose now flawless kicking ability was not yet refined in '97 and ultimately cost SA with inaccuracy.

McGeechan not ready to play Test 15 together.
Whether this is a smoke screen or not, I think the starting test 15 will play together over the next two games, but the coaches just do not realise it yet, due to some positions being tighter to call then expected. PO'C is a certainty, and I think it would be a silly move to bet against BO'D to start in the centre (injuries permitting of course). Despite a shaky end to the Cheetahs game I don't think Lee Byrne has been removed from the 15 shirt either. From the games so far I would say my 15 would look like this*:

1- Jenkins

2- Mears - although I'm still not 100% sold and would like to see Ford play another full game. ( Rory Best where are you ?!?!?)

3 - Sheridan for his scrummaging power - with Vickery to replace him on 60 mins if he can stop giving away penalties.

4 - Simon Shaw - strange call yes? But his overall bulk will be needed to quell the power of Botha & Matfield in the opening exchanges. Wyn-Jones to replace him early 2nd half.

5 - PO'C. With Shaw on from the start O'Connell can carry more ball and hopefully set up a platform to release the backs - if only he learnt to pass in Ard Scoil Rís!

6 - Ferris, outstanding so far, very physical on the fringe area and has shown he can attack with pace. His off load versus Italy in the 6 nations shows he can play a continuity game as well.

7- Martyn Williams - the out and out scrounger, he will give a few penalties away at the breakdown, especially with the Lions not interpreting the refs well, but his ability to slow down the opposition will be vital.

8 - Heaslip - his athleticism wins him the spot over Wallace, but it's close. I think Powell has shown that he is too on dimensional and would be of no challenge to the man monster Spies.

9 - Phillips - crabbing along in his best Tomás O'Leary impression makes you think how much Howley must bemoan the loss of the Munster and Irish scrum half.

10 - Jones his physicality will win him the spot over O'Gara. If the Irish ten plays a good game Wednesday he will take the bench spot. If the test game is tight I would much rather a cool headed O'Gara to come on and pin the 'Boks into the corners.

11 - TBC - I would prefer Luke Fitzgerald or Monye on recent showings but will wait until next Sunday to make a call. I think the over persistence with trying to get Williams his form back is now embarrassing.

12 - Roberts - if Flutey can prove his fitness he takes the bench over D'Arcy for me, but for now I'd love to see the medical student run hard and straight into the Springboks backs.

13 - Brian O'Driscoll, with Roberts taking up a lot of the 'Boks backrow and back line I think O'Driscoll can exploit the extra space with his re-newed sense of skill. I will admit, I thought he was done prior to Christmas, but the 2nd half of the season he has played the rugby of his career. To top it off with a Lions series would befit a man of his talent.

14 - Tommy Bowe - what a difference a year makes? Playing for the Ospreys has turned him into a medium skilled winger into a top class distributor and link man- just watch the rout last Wednesday and see how many of the tries his hands were involved in.

15 - Lee Byrne - one knock on not withstanding one of the best 15's to ever play the game of rugby. Hopefully he can maintain that in the tests.

* team open to changes over the next two games. Author accepts he will not be 100% correct and that opinions with readers may vary. Author also doesn't care.